It may take months to discover whether the actions taken by last week's Group of 20 summit in London are enough to rescue the world economy from a prolonged recession, if not depression. The substance of its conclusions will have to convince capital markets, global financial institutions, investors and humble consumers that they can start to spend, borrow or lend again.
上周20國集團(G20)倫敦峰會采取的行動是否足以拯救世界經(jīng)濟于持續(xù)衰退（如果不是蕭條的話），可能需要幾個月時間才能明朗。該峰會的實質(zhì)內(nèi)容必須要讓資本市場、全球金融機構(gòu)、投資者和渺小的消費者確信：他們又可以開始支出、借款或放貸了。

But the symbolism of the event may be more important than the substance. For even if the G20 countries are a strange ad hoc selection, initially brought together by the Asian financial crisis in 1997, they represent a whole new element in the world order. They are not the Group of Seven - the club of western powers and Japan - or the G8 (the G7 plus Russia). The use of the G20 at this moment of global crisis is a clear indication that the old order has outlived its time.
但是，本次峰會的象征意義也許比實質(zhì)內(nèi)容更重要。因為即使G20成員國是一個奇怪的無規(guī)律組合，最初因為1997年的亞洲金融危機而匯聚到一起開會，但它們在世界秩序中代表著一個全新元素。它們不是7國集團(G7)，即西方列強俱樂部加上日本，也不是G8，即G7加上俄羅斯。在全球危機的這一關(guān)口動用 G20，是一個明確的跡象，說明舊的秩序已經(jīng)過時了。

Another pointer came four months ago when the US National Intelligence Council, part of Washington's security apparatus, published a startling forecast. The international system as constructed after the second world war would, it predicted, be "unrecognisable" by 2025, thanks to globalisation, the rise of emerging powers and "an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from west to east".
另一個跡象是在4個月前浮現(xiàn)的，當(dāng)時美國安全部門“國家情報委員會”(National Intelligence Council, NIC)發(fā)表了一份驚人的預(yù)測。其中預(yù)計，在第二次世界大戰(zhàn)后構(gòu)建的國際體系，到2025年將變得“難以辨認”，原因包括全球化、新興強國的崛起，以及“ 財富和經(jīng)濟實力相對地從西方到東方的歷史性轉(zhuǎn)移”。

"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," the document declared. "Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th-century scenario of arms races, territorial expansion, and military rivalries."
“今后20年間，向一個新體系的過渡將充滿風(fēng)險，”這份文件宣告?！皯?zhàn)略對立最有可能圍繞貿(mào)易、投資、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新以及收購出現(xiàn)，但我們也不能排除軍備競賽、領(lǐng)土擴張，以及軍事對立等19世紀(jì)的情形?！?/p>

That report was largely written before the full force of the financial and economic crisis had become apparent. Nevertheless, its authors were convinced that the "unipolar moment" of unchallenged US hegemony after the Berlin Wall came down was already drawing to an end. The future world order would be "multipolar".
這份報告基本上是在本次金融和經(jīng)濟危機的嚴(yán)重程度完全呈現(xiàn)之前寫成的。不過，其作者當(dāng)時已經(jīng)確信，柏林墻倒塌后美國霸權(quán)不受挑戰(zhàn)的“單極時刻”行將終結(jié)。未來的世界秩序?qū)⑹恰岸鄻O”的。

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