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People Initially Overestimate Then Later Underestimate Their Abilities

從“自以為是”到“妄自菲薄”

Have you ever bought a new electronic device, or tried a new activity, and then dropped it because you were sure you couldn’t possibly master it? Well, don’t give up so quickly.

你以前有沒有買過(guò)一個(gè)新的電子設(shè)備，或去嘗試一項(xiàng)新的活動(dòng)，然后馬上就放棄了，因?yàn)槟惆l(fā)現(xiàn)沒有能力去掌握它？嗯， 其實(shí)你不用放棄得那么快。

Researchers performed six experiments that involved subjects trying out new tasks—including drawing an image from looking at its reflection in a mirror, and learning to type on a new kind of keyboard. The participants were asked how long it would take them to learn the task. They tended to be overconfident and thought they’d do better on the first try than they actually did.

研究人員做了6個(gè)“新任務(wù)嘗試”實(shí)驗(yàn)，比如說(shuō)根據(jù)鏡子的反射面來(lái)畫畫，學(xué)習(xí)在一個(gè)新式鍵盤上打字。當(dāng)參與者被問及他們學(xué)會(huì)這些任務(wù)需要花費(fèi)多少時(shí)間時(shí)，他們都表現(xiàn)得自信滿滿，認(rèn)為他們的第一次表現(xiàn)會(huì)很不錯(cuò)。

[en]Then, after trying, they were asked how quickly they’d become good at it. But this time they were pessimistic and thought it’d take them longer to learn than it actually did. The study is in the Journal of Consumer Research.

Then, after trying, they were asked how quickly they’d become good at it. But this time they were pessimistic and thought it’d take them longer to learn than it actually did. The study is in the Journal of Consumer Research.

然而，在他們嘗試之后，當(dāng)再次被問及何時(shí)能夠上手時(shí)，這次他們都比較消極了，并且認(rèn)為他們會(huì)花比實(shí)際操作時(shí)更多的時(shí)間。這項(xiàng)研究發(fā)表在《消費(fèi)者研究》雜志上。

The findings are relevant because many new consumer goods are quickly tossed aside. It could be because people initially think that their fancy new mp3 player will be easy– then after they try, they’re sure they’ll never be able to master it. So you will be able to ski—or use that iPad—later than you expected, but sooner than you think.

這項(xiàng)發(fā)現(xiàn)與消費(fèi)者是有關(guān)聯(lián)的，因?yàn)楹芏嗌唐飞鲜泻蠛芸炀捅涣酪贿吜?。這可能就是因?yàn)槿藗円婚_始就認(rèn)為他們心中的那款新式mp3播放器會(huì)很容易上手。當(dāng)他們?cè)囉煤篑R上就認(rèn)定他們永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)用這東西。于是你會(huì)在期望后馬上放棄或者“要不試試那款iPad”，而且比你想像的還要迅速。

—Steve Mirsky

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