Bad blood pressure and cholesterol numbers are ___1___ for future health problems. You won’t definitely have a heart attack, for example, but your risk is higher. Now researchers have developed a similar-style early warning system for the public health of an entire region. They found that an analysis of particular environmental conditions helps ___2___ the deadly disease cholera. The work is in the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. [Citation to come]

The scientists did a kind of retrospective clinical study, in which they analyzed years of both disease and environmental data from the Zanzibar archipelago, and they discovered that in areas already at-risk a one-degree Celsius increase in temperature over the average monthly minimum ___3___ a doubling of the cholera cases within the next four months. A 200-millimeter increase in the monthly rainfall total also ___4___ a big rise in cholera cases within two months.

Cholera bacteria thrive in warm water where sanitation is poor. So the hotter, wetter conditions are just what the doctor did not ___5___. The researchers hope that monitoring the environment can help communities prepare better for cholera outbreaks.
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