【TED】是一個會議的名稱，它是英文technology, entertainment, design三個單詞的首字母縮寫。TED是社會各界精英交流的盛會，它鼓勵各種創(chuàng)新思想的展示、碰撞。


Martin Jacques
Martin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos.

三個基礎理解中國：文明國邦，而非民族國家；漢民族為主體；家長式的政府管理


【這是新的TED演講節(jié)目，每天下午2點更新，歡迎大家完善譯文?！?
【本段全文聽寫】



剛出了【TED演講】的節(jié)目，歡迎訂閱~

Hints：
Goldman
Sachs
civilizational
Chinese
Indian
American
BNP
Paribas
China
The world is changing with really remarkable speed. If you look at the chart at the top here, you'll see that in 2025, these Goldman Sachs projections suggest that the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. And if you look at the chart for 2050, it's projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the American economy, and the Indian economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. And we should bear in mind here that these projections were drawn up before the Western financial crisis. A couple of weeks ago, I was looking at the latest projection by BNP Paribas for when China will have a larger economy than the United States. Goldman Sachs projected 2027. The post-crisis projection is 2020. That's just a decade away. China is going to change the world in two fundamental respects. First of all, it's a huge developing country with a population of 1.3 billion people, which has been growing for over 30 years at around 10 percent a year. And within a decade, it will have the largest economy in the world. Never before in the modern era has the largest economy in the world been that of a developing country, rather than a developed country. Secondly, for the first time in the modern era, the dominant country in the world -- which I think is what China will become -- will be not from the West and from very, very different civilizational roots.
世界正在 以驚人的速度飛快得改變著。 如果你看著這上方的圖表， 你會看到在2025年， 高盛投資公司的這些預測 表明中國經(jīng)濟規(guī)模 會和美國經(jīng)濟幾乎相當。 如果看 2050年的圖表， 預測表明中國經(jīng)濟規(guī)模 將會是美國經(jīng)濟的兩倍， 印度的經(jīng)濟規(guī)模將會和 美國的經(jīng)濟幾乎持平。 在這里，我們應該記住 這些預測是在 西方經(jīng)濟危機之前做出的。 幾周前， 我查看法國巴黎銀行的 最近預測， 中國在什么時候 會超越美國經(jīng)濟， 成為第一大經(jīng)濟體。 高盛投資公司預測2027年。 危機過后的預測 是2020年。 這也不過只有10年的光景。 中國將在兩個基本方面上 改變世界。 首先， 中國是一個幅員廣大的發(fā)展中國家 它有13億人口， 在過去30年間 它以每年10%左右的經(jīng)濟增長率發(fā)展。 在未來10年間， 它會有世界上最大的經(jīng)濟體。 在世界現(xiàn)代史中，以前從來都是發(fā)達國家 還沒有一個發(fā)展中的國家 變成了世界上 最大的經(jīng)濟體。 第二， 在現(xiàn)代史中第一次 在世界上， 我認為中國會變成大國， 它有別于西方國家 而它是從非常，非常不同的文明根源發(fā)展起的大國。