1997 Passage 5

?　　Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rearview mirror and a faulty steering wheel.

　　Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.

　　It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.

　　Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack. America's capacity utilisation, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment — the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.

　　Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.

67. From the passage we learn that ________.
　　[A] there is a definite relationship between inflation and interest rates
　　[B] economy will always follow certain models
　　[C] the economic situation is better than expected
　　[D] economists had foreseen the present economic situation

68. According to the passage, which of the following is TRUE?
　　[A] Making monetary policies is comparable to driving a car.
　　[B] An extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation.
　　[C] A high unemployment rate will result from inflation.
　　[D] Interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy.

69. The sentence "This is no flash in the pan" (line 5, paragraph 3) means that ________.
　　[A] the low inflation rate will last for some time
　　[B] the inflation rate will soon rise
　　[C] the inflation will disappear quickly
　　[D] there is no inflation at present

70. The passage shows that the author is ________ the present situation.
　　[A] critical of
　　[B] puzzled by
　　[C] disappointed at
　　[D] amazed at

重點詞匯：

monetary /5mQnitEri/ （金融的，貨幣的）←monet+ary，monet=money，-ary形容詞后綴。

precise /pri5sais/ （精確的）即pre+cise，pre-在前，cise(=cide)詞根“切”，于是“在前面切”→知道切多少的→精確的。參suicide（自殺），2002年Text 4。He knew the precise psychological moment when to say nothing.他知道那個心理上的精確瞬間，那時什么都不該說。

liken /5laikEn/ （把……比作）←like+(e)n動詞后綴。

windscreen /5windskri:n/ （擋風(fēng)玻璃）←wind+screen。windscreen wipers — the eyelashes of rain 汽車風(fēng)檔上的刮水器——雨的睫毛。

poll /pEul/ （v.n.投票；民意測驗）原指“人頭”(head)，“根據(jù)人頭統(tǒng)計選票”。poll表“人頭”可這樣記：p=b（因為對稱字母可替換），o=a（因為元音字母可替換），故poll=ball，人的頭像“球”。Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?你有沒有過這種感覺，即我們舉行選舉的唯一理由就是弄清民意測驗是否準(zhǔn)確？

slack /slAk/ （v.n.a.松散；蕭條）。In marriage, a man becomes slack and selfish, and undergoes a fatty degeneration of his moral being.婚后男人變得懶散自私，經(jīng)歷著道德生命的脂肪變性。

thrilling /5WriliN/ （激動的；顫抖的）←thrill+ing，thrill（使激動；令人激動的事），-ing形容詞后綴。Everybody who plays an instrument, even a little, understands music in a difficult way from somebody who has never felt the thrill of making music himself.每個演奏樂器的人，哪怕只會一點點，理解音樂的方式都與從未感受過自己奏出音樂的激動的人不同。

unfortunately /Qn5fC:tjunEtli/ （不幸地）即un+fortun(e)+ate+ly，un-否定前綴，fortune（幸運）見2003年Text 3，-ate后綴，-ly后綴。反義詞為fortunately（幸運地）←fortun(e)+ate+ly。去ly即為二者的形容詞形式：unfortunate（不幸的）←un+fortun(e)+ate；fortunate（幸運的）←fortun(e)+ate。Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils.時間是了不起的教師，但不幸的是，它殺死所有的學(xué)生。Fortunately psychoanalysis is not the only way to resolve inner conflict. Life still remains a very effective therapist.幸運的是，心理分析并非消除內(nèi)心沖突的唯一方法，生活依然是十分有效的治療專家。Do not speak of your happiness to one less fortunate than yourself.不要向不如你幸運的人講述你的幸福。If you are too fortunate, you will not know yourself. If you are too unfortunate, nobody will know you.若過于幸運，就不會認(rèn)識自己；若過于不幸，就沒人會認(rèn)識你。

upend /Qp5end/ （v.顛倒；打倒）←up+end。

難句解析：

①Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" of "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth.
▲在第一個句子中，其主干為Much of the language..., makes it sound like...。used to describe monetary policy是用于修飾language的定語，后面的such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" of "a touch on the brakes"是對前面的language進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步說明。第二個句子是一個簡單句。
△如上所述的句子主干被確定之后，句子就不難理解了。為了簡化這個句子以便于理解，可以先把such as引導(dǎo)的部分忽略不看，那樣整個句子就比較好掌握了。注意make it sound like a precise science當(dāng)中it指代前面提到的monetary policy。

②Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rearview mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
▲這句話承接前面陳述的原因。hence后面只是一個名詞詞組，中心詞是the analogy，后面that引導(dǎo)定語從句修飾前面的analogy。with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rearview and a faulty steering wheel是介詞詞組修飾前面的名詞car。注意此句沒有謂語動詞，只是一個名詞性的短語。
△理解這句話的關(guān)鍵在于hence的用法。hence的意思是“for this reason，因此，所以”，主要用于書面語，是副詞，可以連接一個完整的句子，也可以只跟一個名詞。例如：Baby found a pot of paint, hence all the marks on the wall。另外liken A to B意思是“把A與B相比，把A比作B”。

③This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
▲這是一個并列句，前后用分號隔開兩個子句，是遞進(jìn)關(guān)系。第一句話中，no可以用not a代替。后面一個句子中inflation是主語，使用了被動語態(tài)的現(xiàn)在完成時態(tài)。lower是表語，than expected和in Britain and America，以及前面的over the past couple of years都是介詞短語作狀語。
△首先應(yīng)該注意到那個分號，可以把分號前后分別作為一個簡單句單獨對待。另外在后面一個句子中，應(yīng)該抓住inflation has been... lower...這個基本結(jié)構(gòu)（被動語態(tài)，現(xiàn)在完成時態(tài)）。flash in the pan是習(xí)語，意思是a sudden success that will not be repeated，接近漢語中的“曇花一現(xiàn)”。

④Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack.
▲這是一個主從復(fù)合句，連詞since連接了兩個句子。主句的主干是Economists have been... surprised by...。原因狀語從句的主干是conventional measures suggest that...，代詞that引導(dǎo)了賓語從句作為suggest的賓語。在這個賓語從句中，and especially America's相當(dāng)于especially America's economy，是前面主語both economies的同位語，用于強(qiáng)調(diào)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)。
△這里應(yīng)該首先注意到since這個連詞，然后分別理解兩個句子，再把它們放在一起，這個句子的意思就迎刃而解了。另外注意suggest不是“建議”的意思，而應(yīng)該是“顯示，指示”。

⑤The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
▲在第一個句子里面，主干是... explanation is... a little defective。這是一個主語+系動詞+表語結(jié)構(gòu)。副詞unfortunately是插入語，作狀語。第二個句子的主干并不復(fù)雜：... economists argue that...，代詞that后面是賓語從句。這個賓語從句的基本結(jié)構(gòu)為structural changes... have upended... models...，其中structural changes是主語，have upended是現(xiàn)在完成時態(tài)的謂語，models是賓語。這個賓語models后面是一個that引導(dǎo)的限定性定語從句，修飾models。
△第一個句子相對比較簡單。第二個句子看著很長，但是只要明確了句子的主干，就很容易把整個句子看明白?？梢韵人Φ糍e語從句中的那個定語從句(that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation)，這樣這個句子結(jié)構(gòu)就顯得簡單多了。然后再接這個定語從句，整句的意思就浮出水面了。另外注意upend一詞由動詞短語end up衍生而來，意為“結(jié)束，推翻”。

試題解析：

67. [C] 意為：經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢比預(yù)想的好。
　　第三段指出，它（指：平均通貨膨脹率）也比多數(shù)預(yù)測者預(yù)測的低。《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》雜志每月調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家小組稱：1995年美國平均通貨膨脹率會達(dá)3.5％左右，但是，8月份它實際降至2.6％，全年也不過3％左右；在英國和日本，平均通貨膨脹率比上年底預(yù)測的低0.5個百分點（或：半個百分點）。而且，在過去幾年里一直是如此(this is no flash in the pan)：在英美兩國，平均通貨膨脹率一直比預(yù)測的要低。
　　A意為：通貨膨脹與利率有直接關(guān)系。第一段第二句明確指出：利率與通貨膨脹間的關(guān)系是不確定的。
　　B意為：經(jīng)濟(jì)（的運行）總是遵循某些模式（或：規(guī)律）。第一段指出，“使經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸”“使經(jīng)濟(jì)剎車”，人們經(jīng)常使用這樣的詞來形容貨幣政策的作用，聽起來它似乎是一門嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)膶W(xué)問。事實遠(yuǎn)非如此（Nothing could be further from the truth.它根本就不是一門嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)精確的學(xué)問）。下文從持續(xù)低的通貨膨脹率的意外的形勢來說明了經(jīng)濟(jì)運行難以預(yù)測。
　　D意為：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)測到了目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢。相反，正如第四段第一句所指出的，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對目前有利的通貨膨脹率始料未及。另請參閱上文分析。

68. [B] 意為：極低的失業(yè)率會導(dǎo)向通貨膨脹。
　　第四段指出，從傳統(tǒng)的（衡量）標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來看，英美兩國（特別是美國）的經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)并沒有滑坡(productive slack)，例如：美國的設(shè)備（能力）利用率(capacity utilisation)今年初達(dá)到歷史最高水平，其失業(yè)率已低于多數(shù)正常失業(yè)率所允許的數(shù)字——過去認(rèn)為：失業(yè)率低于正常失業(yè)率時通貨膨脹率就開始上升(take off)。
　　A意為：制定貨幣政策如同開車。根據(jù)第一段第四、五句，在政策的變化對經(jīng)濟(jì)起實際作用之前，會有很長而難以確定的(variable)時間差（lag意為：滯后性）。所以，許多人把貨幣政策實施過程比作駕駛一輛遮住擋風(fēng)玻璃、后視鏡已斷裂、方向盤有毛病的汽車。換言之，他們認(rèn)為，貨幣政策的制定和實施有很大程度的不可預(yù)測性或盲目性。可見，A表達(dá)的意思不確切。
　　C意為：通貨膨脹導(dǎo)致高失業(yè)率。注意，在這里，inflation一詞前沒有修飾詞，際上，過低的失業(yè)率會導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹率的上升。參閱上文分析。
　　D意為：利率對經(jīng)濟(jì)有直接而迅速的影響。參閱上文分析。

69. [A] a flash in the pan意為：曇花一現(xiàn)，偶然出現(xiàn)的情況。
　　參閱第67題題解。
　　[B]、[C]、[D]均不對。

70. [D] 意為：對……感到驚奇，認(rèn)為……不可思議。
　　本文主要評述了目前良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢，它是由持續(xù)低的通貨膨脹率造成的，是始料未及的。作者強(qiáng)調(diào)了目前形勢的始料不及的一面（尤其是第二、三、四段的描述）。
　　A意為：批評。
　　B意為：因……感到困惑（不解）。
　　C意為：對……感到失望。

全文翻譯：

　　很多用來描述貨幣政策的詞，如“引導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸”，“觸動經(jīng)濟(jì)剎車”，聽起來像是一門精確的科學(xué)。事實遠(yuǎn)非如此。利率和通貨膨脹之間的關(guān)系難以確定。在政策改變對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響前會有一段較長時間且變化不定的后滯期。因此，才會有人將貨幣政策的指導(dǎo)比做是駕駛一輛帶有黑色擋風(fēng)玻璃、后視鏡破碎及方向盤失靈的汽車。
　　盡管有這么多不利因素，中央銀行家們似乎對近來的形勢有了不少值得夸耀的東西。西方七大工業(yè)國去年的平均通貨膨脹率降至僅2.3％，接近30年來的最低水平。今年7月略微升高到2.5％。這遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于許多國家在70年代和80年代早期經(jīng)歷的兩位數(shù)的膨脹率。
　　這也低于許多預(yù)測者預(yù)測的數(shù)字。1994年底，每月接受《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》意見調(diào)查的一組經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家指出，美國在1995年的平均通貨膨脹率將達(dá)到3.5％。實際上，8月份就降到了2.6％。而且有望達(dá)到全年平均僅為3％。去年年底，英國和日本的通貨膨脹率實際上比預(yù)測的要低半個百分點。這不是曇花一現(xiàn)。在過去幾年里，英國和美國的通貨膨脹率始終低于預(yù)測水平。
　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對英美兩國有利的通脹率感到特別詫異，因為傳統(tǒng)的計量方法表明兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)，特別是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎沒有生產(chǎn)蕭條的時候。比如，美國的生產(chǎn)力利用率在今年前段時間達(dá)到了歷史最高水平，失業(yè)率（8月份為5.6％）已降到低于對自然失業(yè)率的大多數(shù)估測——過去，當(dāng)比率低于自然失業(yè)率時，通貨膨脹率早已迅速上升。
　　為何通貨膨脹如此的和緩？可惜的是，這最令人震驚的解釋有一點缺陷。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)強(qiáng)有力的變化已經(jīng)推翻了那個以經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和通貨膨脹的歷史上相互關(guān)聯(lián)為基礎(chǔ)的舊的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式。