Researchers analysed the latest data from the state's complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.
研究人員對(duì)美國(guó)加利福尼亞州活躍又復(fù)雜的地質(zhì)斷層系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行分析，并采用新方法，將數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)換成地震幾率。

The estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% to about 7.0%, they say.
結(jié)果表明加州在未來30年發(fā)生8級(jí)或以上地震的可能性從4.7%上升到了7%。

'We are fortunate that seismic activity in California has been relatively low over the past century,' said Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center and a co-author of the study.
該項(xiàng)研究的作者之一、南加州地震中心主任湯姆·喬登說：“過去100年間，加州地震活動(dòng)相對(duì)較低，實(shí)屬幸運(yùn)?！?/div>

'But we know that tectonic forces are continually tightening the springs of the San Andreas fault system, making big quakes inevitable.
“但我們知道，地球陸地板塊力量一直在繃緊圣安地列斯斷層系統(tǒng)，這讓大規(guī)模的地震無可避免?！?/div>

'The UCERF3 model provides our leaders and the public with improved information about what to expect, so that we can better prepare.'
“UCERF3 模型為我們的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人及公眾提供了可靠的信息，為我們預(yù)測(cè)可能發(fā)生的地震，并幫助我們更好的做準(zhǔn)備工作?！?/div>

The Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or UCERF3, improves upon previous models by incorporating the latest data on the state's complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.
UCERF3即第三版統(tǒng)一加州地震斷裂預(yù)測(cè)模型是對(duì)之前版本的更新，它整合了國(guó)家地質(zhì)斷層系統(tǒng)的最新數(shù)據(jù)，同時(shí)使用了最新的方法將這些數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)化為地震幾率。

The study confirms many previous findings, sheds new light on how the future earthquakes will likely be distributed across the state and estimates how big those earthquakes might be.
該項(xiàng)研究證實(shí)了之前的諸多發(fā)現(xiàn)，對(duì)未來美國(guó)可能發(fā)生地震的區(qū)域給出了一定啟示，同時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)了震級(jí)的大小。

Compared to the previous assessment issued in 2008, UCERF2, the estimated rate of earthquakes around magnitude 6.7, the size of the destructive 1994 Northridge earthquake, has gone down by about 30 percent.
與2008年的第二版統(tǒng)一加州地震斷裂預(yù)測(cè)，UCERF3表明，發(fā)生如94年加州北嶺那樣的6.7級(jí)地震的概率下降了30%。

The expected frequency of such events statewide has dropped from an average of one per 4.8 years to about one per 6.3 years.
而且發(fā)生頻率從每4.8年一次降低到每6.3年一次。

However, in the new study, the estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% for UCERF2 to about 7.0% for UCERF3.
但是加州在未來30年發(fā)生8級(jí)或以上地震的幾率從UCERF2預(yù)測(cè)的4.7%上升到了UCERF3預(yù)測(cè)的7.0%。

'The new likelihoods are due to the inclusion of possible multi-fault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously,' said lead author and USGS scientist Ned Field.
該項(xiàng)研究的主要作者、美國(guó)地址勘探局的科學(xué)家內(nèi)德·菲爾德說：“最新的幾率預(yù)測(cè)包含了可能存在的多斷層斷裂，也就是說地震不再只局限于在分開的、單獨(dú)的斷層，而是可能同時(shí)在多個(gè)斷層之間發(fā)生斷裂?！?/div>

'This is a significant advancement in terms of representing a broader range of earthquakes throughout California's complex fault system.'
“本次發(fā)現(xiàn)意義重大，它通過加州復(fù)雜的斷層系統(tǒng)表明發(fā)生大規(guī)模地震的可能性?！?/div>

Two kinds of scientific models are used to inform decisions of how to safeguard against earthquake losses: an Earthquake Rupture Forecast, which indicates where and when the Earth might slip along the state's many faults, and a Ground Motion Prediction model, which estimates the ground shaking given one of the fault ruptures.
有兩種科學(xué)模型用來預(yù)防地震：一種是地震破裂預(yù)測(cè)，可以表明地震何時(shí)何地可能發(fā)生；另一種是地面運(yùn)動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)，可以估計(jì)斷層斷裂可能導(dǎo)致的地面搖晃程度。

The UCERF3 model is of the first kind, and is the latest earthquake-rupture forecast for California. It was developed and reviewed by dozens of leading scientific experts from the fields of seismology, geology, geodesy, paleoseismology, earthquake physics and earthquake engineering.
第三版統(tǒng)一加州地震斷裂預(yù)測(cè)模型屬于第一種，而且是關(guān)于加州可能發(fā)生地震的最新預(yù)測(cè)。它由幾十個(gè)來自地震學(xué)、地質(zhì)學(xué)、測(cè)地學(xué)、古地震學(xué)、地震物理學(xué)以及地震工程學(xué)等多個(gè)領(lǐng)域的首席科學(xué)家研究和開發(fā)。